Scanning the Futures: Strategic Foresight in Action
How do we anticipate what could happen in the future? With so much vying for our attention, what do we focus on? What is important and what is merely noise?
In the Shared Futures Lab, Humanities Tennessee uses strategic foresight – a systematic process of scanning for changes on the margins before they become major forces in the mainstream – in our work to explore how the outcomes of past and current humanities programming may impact the future of Tennessee communities and civic life.
Horizon scanning, the process of looking for evidence of gradual or disruptive changes that are already taking place or are about to occur, is one of the central processes of foresight. In the Strategic Foresight Toolkit, Elizabeth Merritt writes that the goal of scanning, “is to find what is not already known, to go beyond established wisdom and seek the new. We look for early signs, teases, and hints of trends that are just beginning, or changes in speed or direction of existing trends.”
We look for articles, studies, reportage, and commentaries about topics in the broad categories of society, technology, environment, economy, and politics/policy for clues about the future. These serve as starting points for us to imagine what the implications of these trends and events could be. Here’s some stories we’re monitoring and questions we’re asking:
Society
High school graduation numbers are expected to peak in 2025 and then steadily decline throughout most of the country through 2041 due to declining birth rates. The South is the only region expected to have a net increase (3%) at that date. Tennessee is one of only ten states with a projected increase with an anticipated 15% more graduating seniors by that date. This graduating class will also be increasingly ethnically diverse. Fewer high school graduates nationally mean less students attending college, which could impact the ability of smaller colleges and universities to stay open. Will the increased number of Tennessee graduates decide to attend these schools? What could happen to Tennessee colleges and their surrounding communities if their enrollment numbers decline? How could humanities organizations fill those gaps?
On the other end of the demographic spectrum, one million Americans are projected to develop some form of dementia every year by 2060, a stark increase from the estimated 500,000 diagnosed in 2020. What increase in services could be needed to support affected individuals and their caregivers?
Technology
Digital vulnerabilities – the potential for data to be degraded, lost, or stolen or for frequently used platforms or services to be disrupted or discontinued – are inherent in our use of technology. Recent decisions by Meta regarding content moderation and third-party fact checking have resulted in some users deciding to leave Instagram and Facebook. It’s too early to tell if these decisions will be as widespread as account holders leaving X after changes to its terms of service and its owner’s comments. Nonprofit organizations rely heavily on free social media accounts to connect with audiences; however, if existing audiences leave these sites, what plans are in place to maintain connections and reach new audiences?
Environment
First Street, a climate risk modeling company, models and predicts impacts of future climate scenarios on specific properties. Many Tennessee cities have major heat risks, which will increase the need for cooling and the amount of electricity used for cooling purposes. A recent report by the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE) found that utilities companies in the Southeast have underinvested in efficiency measures “which reduce the total amount of energy needed to produce a service.” The growth of data centers, such as xAI’s Memphis facility, is adding to the industrial demands on the power supply. What energy efficiency measures can organizations invest in to both save money and conserve energy? What plans need to be created to deal with extreme heat?
Economy
The recently launched Chattanooga Future Fund provides every kindergarten and middle school student in Hamilton County public schools with a $150 savings account to be used for their post-secondary education or career. The accounts are meant to be supported with additional contributions from families, the students, and community members. What impact could this initiative have on students’ post-secondary choices? Is this model scalable?
The University of Memphis received almost $5 million in grant funding from the Mellon Foundation to support a paid internship program for undergraduate humanities majors. The 125-145 annual humanities internships will mostly take place at nonprofit and community organizations. What impact could this funding have on students’ decisions to major in the humanities? How can humanities organizations structure internship programs that provide transferable skill training?
Political/Policy
In a recent survey of art museum directors, researchers found that the majority of these directors believe that censorship is somewhat of a problem at art museums today. However, 90% of respondents do not have written censorship policies or procedures for responding to formal or informal challenges to exhibitions. In winter 2024, East Tennessee State University’s Reece Museum received demands from Republican state lawmakers to remove a mixed-media piece that depicted a conservative politician with fascist symbols. In response, the museum left the artwork on display but added a content warning and required viewers to sign a waiver before viewing the exhibit. What types of proactive policies should museums consider writing for their exhibitions?
We encourage you to set up your own strategic foresight scanning practice to keep you informed and imaginative about the future. What stories are you monitoring? Let us know!